Where's the 25 million pounds transfer fee a season?

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Manchester United: Glazers turn transition into decline

The Glazer family has owned Manchester United for around fourteen months now, and finally the reality of that purchase is starting to be felt by even the most optimistic of the 'wait-and-see' fans. The majority of match going fans were concerned about the purchase but somewhat reassured by the business-as-usual stance at the club. The management team largely remained and Sir Bobby Charlton urged people to be guided by results and not emotion.

2005/6 was a mixed season - with a good league finish of second (Chelsea were always going to win it last season), and a League Cup win balanced by an early Champions' League exit and an insipid FA Cup exit at Anfield. This was probably around the level that was expected for a team that had ceded its right to be considered the best in the land and was deep (if not lost) in transition.

But 2006/7 is barely three weeks away and transition is now being replaced by decline.

As we approach the end of the third transfer window of the Glazer reign, it is clear that the club is being squeezed so hard that decline is now inevitable.

Firstly the Glazers have dumped much of their personal debt arising from the takeover onto the club, the rearrangement of the finances last week rolled ?63m interest into the debt - but cunningly - the same amount was additionally secured against the football club. In simple terms all the interest that was piling up on the Glazers has simply been pushed onto the club. Anyone with the glib argument of 'why would they sink so much of their own money into the club only to run it into the ground' needn't bother repeating it, it won't be long before the Glazers will have no financial risk attached to this deal.

Secondly as a result of annual interest payments now reduced to, reportedly, 'just' ?42m per season the squad cost cutting is rampant. As many reserves as possible are being farmed out on loan, and fringe players are being sold or released. There are fewer professionals at Old Trafford than there have been for the length of Sir Alex Ferguson's stewardship. Increasingly Ferguson is being forced to draw the wagons around his first team squad and (very much like the dog-days of Ron Atkinson) to hell with the rest.

Revenues have been driven remorselessly up with a few million extra from sponsorship, plenty more from TV - and a big increase in ticket prices (up 25% in two seasons), so the cost cutting is a policy not a reaction to falling revenues.

The cost cutting and penny-pinching is indicative of a structure that is short of cash. I've always believed that The Glazers bought the club with the intention of selling it within three years for a big profit - and the abject transfer market dealings this summer simply support this theory.

With Liverpool spending ?20m and Chelsea another ?50m, Manchester United have actually become nett sellers. A team that so obviously needs two high quality central midfielders has spent the summer not buying anyone. To my knowledge only one bid has been made all summer - around ?10m for Michael Carrick - with United spending more energy in trying to flog Ruud van Nistelrooy than in trying to buy in anyone. It certainly seems that the orders from on high are 'sell-before-you-can-buy' - hardly what you expect from a billionaire and his boys, and not a policy designed to improve the club.

United stand on the cusp of the season likely to lose their serial top scorer - without replacing him - and without a midfield to dominate anyone but the relegation candidates. Looking dispassionately at the midfield only Ronaldo is international or world class - the rest are solid Premiership quality players, but hardly world beating. Chelsea can choose from Essien, Makelele, Robben, Lampard, Ballack, Wright-Phillips, Mikel and Cole - any three of which could stroll into the United midfield.

Last summer two small purchases (van der Sar, Park) were offset by similar sales (Neville, Kleberson); in January the gaping defensive holes were iffily plugged with Vidic and Evra costing around ?12m.

This summer the sales of Mikel, Spector and probably van Nistelrooy, balanced by the probable purchase of Carrick, will leave United with a nett transfer budget of nothing since the arrival of the Glazers. At a time when United need completely rebuild the midfield, Ferguson is expected to fund it from sales. Can anyone seriously expect Ferguson to compete with Chelsea or Liverpool on that basis?

Most Premiership clubs spend millions and even tens of millions oper season (Chelsea are an exception); while United stroll everyone else is sprinting - extrapolate this for a couple of seasons and Manchester United will be in mid-table.

The number of United fans who believed in some mythical ?25m annual transfer budget must now be falling daily. The reality is that United are being run at about break even in their transfer dealings regardless of the need. This would explain the reason that Ferguson is refusing to countenance Ronaldo leaving. Despite the winger's obvious difficulties with English football, Ferguson knows that he will probably not be allowed to use the proceeds of a sale to replace him.

Next summer when ticket prices go up ?100 for the third season running, with a team in decline and every penny from a support that is being soaked remorselessy going to pay off debt hoisted on to the club by their 'owners' everyone can draw their own conclusions. A club that was self-reliant, debt-free and funded by its fan-base two years ago is now a debt-driven monster.

As Ferguson's hands are tied in the transfer market it may be unfair, but expect the 'Fergie out' chants to start ringing round the stadium as soon as he has celebrated twenty years in charge - with the nasty songs about the Glazers expected to be resumed somewhat sooner.

Antony Melvin
26 July 2006